Unibot Exploited, AI Narrative, $ARB, $TIA, $SHFL & More
The Castle Chronicle: Volume 41
👀 What’s to Come in Volume 41
🔑 Key News: Headlines, Exploits, Continued Adoption, DeFi Updates, New Projects & more from CJ
⛓ On-Chain Sleuthing Fake Shu Zhu, Memecoins & $RLB feature along with Smart Money Moves from Cl
🔥 Hot Narratives: AI, $ARB szn, Airdrop Updates from unexployed
📈 Macro Outlook: Simplified Round-up and Implications from Hansolar
📉 HTF Price Action Scenarios from Vlad
⚔️ A Call to Arms
Think you have what it takes to enter the Castle and contribute to funding and advising projects across the space?
🔑 Key News
Blackrock preparing for Bitcoin ETF launch
Grayscale partnering with FTSE Russell to launch a crypto index
Ledger Officially Rolls Out 'Recover'
Circle partners with Taiwan’s BitoGroup and FamilyMart to expand presence
Kraken to share user data with IRS next month following June court order
Taiwan officially proposes crypto bill with first reading passed at parliament
Kasikornbank acquires local crypto exchange
Exploits that Happened this Week
Useful DeFi Updates
Sudoswap dev 0xmons introduces SudoShort
FTX Funds on the move
IntentX reveals launch plans
Injective introduces Injective Nexus integration with Google Cloud
FantomFDN introduces their FVM
Polygon Labs POL Token upgrade goes live
Arbitrum to integrate its Orbit stack with Celestia for data availability
Prisma Finance releases Tokenomics
HyperliquidX changing their open interest program Oct 31st
Drama on Layer Zero's move on wstETH
Real FlokiInu launches TokenFi RWA project
dydx chain to distribute all network fees to validators and stakers
SnowTraceHQ to be discontinued by end of November
Shuffle announces Airdrop criteria
⛓ On-Chain Sleuthing
Fake Shu Zhu Gambling
The infamous Fake Shu Zhu who entered multiple micro caps with size has been fumbling the bag lately.
He recently swapped all of his $PRIME (bought way higher in September) to ape the Real Smurf Cat at a local top.
Then swap it again for $JOE and $LMR. Pretty remarkable to see so much flip-flopping and on-chain degeneracy. Let this be very careful when aping in hyped memecoins as tides can quickly change.
On-chain Clown Wallet 1 & Wallet 2 [only visible for free subs]
DigitsDAO Accumulating Memecoin
DigitsDAO has been spotted building a, for him, the small position of 5 figures in $BITCOIN (the real one). We guess that he has done so in anticipation of a BTC spot ETF approval. Speculating on $BITCOIN being a high beta for $BTC.
DigitsDAO [only visible for free subs]
BTW, he also holds a huge position in $RLB (>$1 million).
Ethersole Favoring $RLB
Ethersole, the CEO of PlutusDAO on Arbitrum, and another big CT persona has also been printing on his $RLB position that is now a whopping $700k.
Ethersole [only visible for free subs]
Research and analysis by Cl
🔥 Hot Narratives
The AI Narrative: Complete AI Coins Overview
A current ongoing hot narrative, besides memes of course, is AI. It is no secret that AI has been BOOMING this past year and for the years to come. There are a ton of applications being built that will shape the course of our lives (for better or worse) and even more applications that have yet to be ideated.
This is a big opportunity and one that spills into crypto. We were already familiar with some AI coins, but the upcoming OpenAI Devday has sparked the fire for some more upside across the whole sector.
Already, there are quite some good dips to be scoped, most notably $OLAS at 80 cents and a very risky #2DAI sub 2 million market cap.
For those interested in acquiring some AI exposure, big cap, mid-cap, or micro-cap. Well, you are in for a treat! The community has built out a whole spreadsheet covering most AI tokens including some subjective opinions on potential upside.
I encourage everyone to go through the list and find some projects you might want to scoop the dip on.
AI is here to stay.
Castle’s favorites: $TAO, $OLAS, $imgnAI, $0×0.
ARB STIP Update
s/o Stacey Muur for this beautiful visual
ARB STIP is coming! Really. For what we know, most of the projects have passed the KYC procedure and are ready to receive the tokens. We expect distribution to happen in the near future (we hope this week, but expect within 2 weeks).
Radiant and Umami have announced their STIP campaigns on Twitter:
Radiant Airdropping 500k ARB to new dLPs
RFP-25 has successfully passed!
~500,000 ARB will be airdropped to NEW dLPs on @ethereum & 500,000 streamed to all existing dLPs on @arbitrum over 52 weeks.
Combined with Radiant's 2.8M ARB STIP grant, there is good reason to be excited!
Regarding Mainnet expansion : 🧵👇
— Radiant Capital (@RDNTCapital)
Oct 30, 2023
This is separate from the STIP of Radiant.
Umami Outlining their Distribution Plans
In a recent tweet Umami unveiled their distribution campaign of the STIP.
Arbinauts, a golden APR meteorite, is nearing our GLP Vaults! 🌠
What treasures does it hold?
Check the details below, join the mission, and get your share from this cosmic $ARB STIP campaign 🧑🚀
— Umami DAO (@UmamiDao)
Oct 31, 2023
Mind that there are no major unlocks of $ARB until March 2024 (according to TokenTerminal) and combined with the EIP-4844 and current bullish vibes. Could make up for a spicey combination.
Keep that unlock in mind. You likely want to cut $ARB exposure around Q1 ‘ 24 as the unlock in March is around 1bln ARB for team and investors.
Airdrop Update: Ambient, Shuffle, HyperLiquid
Both Shuffle and HyperLiquidX have now officially announced their token. It seems that many of the new projects are following the Blur playbook and utilizing a point system based on dApp usage to distribute tokens.
But first an update on Ambient:
Ambient x Scroll Combo
Ambient has launched its DEX on Scroll. A prime opportunity to get some swaps in with your wallets and farm two major airdrop potentials at the same time.
Mark our words. Both Ambient and Scroll are going to be very lucrative.
1/ We're thrilled to announce that Ambient has launched on @Scroll_ZKP, the cutting-edge EVM-equivalent ZK rollup platform.
— ambient (@ambient_finance)
Oct 31, 2023
$SHFL has been announced!
A portion of any Shuffle profits will be used to buy and burn $SHLF creating deflationary pressure (a la $RLB). And you can still earn the airdrop. Btw, for a great review of the two see CJ’s post from back in September
In September it saw over $200 million in wagers. With a 3% House Edge, this implies a revenue of $6 million.
That is huge. And the best thing is that it is fairly easy to generate good volume on the platform by playing a few silly games.
Even though the platform has been live since February, Shuffle is extending and pushing its numbers and has yet to take a snapshot. This is bullish for anyone not involved as it allows them to still be eligible for the airdrop.
You’ve asked and we’ve listened - the $SHFL token is coming and here's what you need to know.
The $SHFL Airdrop campaign. Be early, generate volume, and stack your $SHFL on
— Shuffle.com (@shufflecom)
Oct 30, 2023
We covered HyperLiquidX already. It is a perps platform on Arbitrum, but not your regular GMX fork.
The team builds and ships fast. As they offer eccentric products, among others perps on Friend Tech and early $TIA perps.
You know we love highly innovative protocols at Castle. Especially when they don’t have a token.
Well, today HyperLiquidX announced their point system. Again, it is the Blur playbook all over again.
Users are rewarded based on volume and referrals.
Hyperliquid's points program will begin on Nov 1 at 00:00 UTC.
1,000,000 points will be distributed weekly to Hyperliquid users for 6 months. The first distribution will take place Nov 9.
Points are meant to reward users who contribute to the protocol’s success.
— Hyperliquid (@HyperliquidX)
Oct 31, 2023
Courtesy of unexployed
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💹 Macro Outlook
Please note that if certain technical jargon or concepts mentioned in this text are unclear, you can refer to investopedia.com for detailed explanations and definitions. Additionally, for a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic events, you can explore the event calendar on investing.com/economic-calendar/.
Tues, Nov 1st : US Treasury QRA(how debt is issued over next 3 months)
‣ Target issuance of bonds come in slightly lower than expectations
Wed, Nov 2nd : ISM Manu PMI, JOLTS Job Openings
Thurs, Nov 3rd : FOMC
Fri, Nov 4rd : Non-farm Payroll, Unemployment Rate, ISM Services PMI
BTC, ETH, and Macro
Despite being an FOMC week, there is little uncertainty with regard to interest rate policy. The consensus is currently an overwhelming ‘hold’ at 5.5%. BTC continues to look strong and has absorbed a lot of the selling in its reclaimed highs at 34000 despite both the SPX and Gold having sell-offs over the past week.
With only 2 more months to go until a final decision is made regarding the BTC spot ETF, it seems likely that volatility will continue. This can also be seen in the IVs of options markets which have increased over 20% from the mid-40s to the mid-50s.
In the options markets for ETH there have been large closes of short calls at the start of the week which could be one of the reasons for ETHs under-performance and low volatility. The gamma charts for ETH are now looking more and more similar to BTC’s charts before its vicious rally.
(note : a large negative GEX means movement towards these prices can be accelerated due to MMs hedging their positions)
ETH is also displaying a high spot-vol correlation(>50%) which was also the case for BTC before its rally. This indicates that when the price increases, the MMs are buying calls to stay delta-neutral.
Solana had a stellar week increasing 25% over the past week. The cosmos ecosystem also had some runners such as $INJ and $ATOM as traders eagerly started trading their newest airdrop $TIA. The AI conference next Monday also led to some narrative-led bidding in $RNDR as well as other AI-related coins.
📈 HTF Price Action Scenarios
Ever since the initial push to the upside price has now calmed down and begun moving sideways. An expected scenario of what I anticipate to become a re-accumulation. The plan here is to see the price expand from the current sideways price action and get involved in that move.
Accumulation inside daily demand zone
Expansion out of consolidation
Ready for bullish setups
The entire purpose of re-accumulation is to grab more liquidity to fuel trend continuation. Longs are favorable right now (NFA), but patience is still required. Great risk/reward can be found as the price expands out of its consolidation area and begins expanding in the direction of the underlying trend.
Trade responsibly and I’ll see y’all next week!
Courtesy of Vlad - trend-based trader and MentFX student
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