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  • Surprise Fed Cuts, Firedancer Unleashed to Testnet at Breakpoint, and More!

Surprise Fed Cuts, Firedancer Unleashed to Testnet at Breakpoint, and More!

PLUS: Token Sentinel’s Tricks in Analytics and Tracking

This week was a whirlwind in the world of crypto and beyond, with some major shifts that could shape the market for weeks to come. If you’ve been busy building or just trying to keep up, don’t worry—we’ve got you covered.

The Fed’s first rate cut since 2020 stole the headlines, sparking waves across the crypto markets. We break down what this means for Bitcoin, altcoins, and the DeFi space, and why the next few moves by global central banks could be crucial.

Infinite Loop Art GIF by CmdrKitten

The Fed’s decision could set off a chain reaction, from TradFi to crypto.

But that’s not all. Firedancer, Solana’s new validator client, just hit the testnet, promising to supercharge the network’s performance and resilience. We’ll explore how this development could impact Solana and what it means for the broader blockchain landscape.

This week, we’re also diving deeper into Token Sentinel, our Telegram bot that’s taking alpha hunting to the next level. After last week’s look at alerts, we’re exploring the analytics and tracking features—giving you the tools to stay ahead of the curve in real-time.

And in case you missed it, we published a comprehensive report on prediction markets, exploring how they could be the next big thing in crypto. If you’re not familiar with the potential of this space, now’s the time to catch up.

Let’s get into it 👇️

🔍️ MARKET WATCH

This week, the Fed delivered its first rate cut since March 2020, slicing 50 basis points off the interest rate, as many had anticipated. The decision came on Wednesday, marking the start of what could be a new easing cycle.

As we entered into the FOMC, the consensus within the Fed was leaning towards a more dovish outcome (larger cut).

However, leading up to the decision, there was significant debate. While some market analysts, like JPMorgan, were anticipating a 50 bps cut, others, including Goldman Sachs, expected a more conservative 25 bps reduction.

The Fed’s move to cut 50bps ultimately aligned with the more aggressive expectations, setting a clear tone for future policy.

For the crypto markets, this rate cut sparked immediate reactions. Bitcoin saw a brief rally as traders positioned themselves for a more accommodative monetary environment. However, the real test will be how sustainable this move is and whether the Fed signals further cuts in the near future.

But the Fed wasn’t the only player. Globally, central banks in the UK, Brazil, China, and others also adjusted their rates this week, leading to significant currency volatility that spilled over into crypto markets.

The broader crypto market is now adjusting to the Fed’s actions. With liquidity potentially increasing due to lower interest rates, the focus shifts to altcoins and DeFi projects that could benefit from a more risk-on environment. However, caution remains, as the next moves by the Fed and other central banks will determine if this is a temporary bounce or the beginning of a longer-term trend.

With the inspiration and data of @MarketsAlpha - Telegram channel for sharing crypto market research and Intel Alpha

🐉 TOKEN SENTINEL ANALYTICS & TRACKING

Last week we looked at Token Sentinel’s Alerts feature, bringing you interesting tokens to your DMs every day.

This week, we go deeper with two more features.

Load up the bot in Telegram here: https://t.me/TokenSentinelBot

ANALYTICS

The analytics sections provide insights into the Top Shillers and X Profile Shillers.

Let’s take a look at Top Shillers.

First of all, we need to remember that “Shills” are labelled against an account for both tweets about the project, as well as simply following the project.

So it’s only fair that in the analytics section, you get to choose which label you’re interested in.

After inputting whether you want the ranking to be for tweets or follows along with the minimum number of shills you are looking for and the number of accounts you want to see returned (to filter and reduce noise) — you’ll get a list of the profiles you’re searching for.

Top 10 accounts with at least 10 tweet shills

From this, you can see each account’s total tokens shilled, % of profitable shills, median ROI, and their average FDV at call time.

Want to check the shill history of a specific X account?

Then the X Profile Shills command is the button.

Let’s take the No.1 Top Shiller that we got from above.

You can then investigate who owns these accounts and whether they are pure alpha or pump-and-dump private group owners (hint: calljamesvip looks like the latter at a glance).

You’ll find that some accounts are more about public calls and collecting clout → these are the tweet shillers.

Others operate in the shadows in stealth → these are the follow shillers.

Once you have found the accounts you like the look of, it’s time to track them.

TRACK

The tracking section allows users to receive alerts on specific X profiles when they tweet or follow any token.

To add a new profile, select the New X Profile Track option and add your favourite accounts.

Once complete, their new token tweet and follows will come straight into your chat with Token Sentinel.

New Follow Alert from Tracked Profile

Courtesy of Francesco - Research Lead at Castle

📈 HTF PRICE ACTION

Not much has changed this week—same old story! Let’s take a moment to revisit the market’s current setup and how I see the bullish scenario playing out.

Right now, the weekly chart is still in a re-accumulation phase, consistent with the higher time frame (HTF) trend on the weekly and monthly charts. This means the market could continue to move sideways for weeks or even months, which is exactly what we’re seeing.

From my experience, once the price dips below all the EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages), it tends to chop sideways and enter an accumulation phase. In these areas, big players gradually build their positions, often by triggering small bullish runs that get people excited, only to liquidate them by driving the price back down. This cycle repeats, which is why it’s usually best to avoid trading in these conditions.

Once the accumulation is complete, the price will start breaking out of the range, and that’s when we should look to follow along with the re-accumulations—just like we’ve successfully done in the past.

Key Points:

  • HTF trend remains bullish

  • Price dipping below EMAs indicates sideways action

  • Expecting more sideways movement before a breakout

This process could take several more weeks or even months to fully play out, so for now, relax, stay patient, and wait for the right opportunities to come our way.

Trade responsibly, and I’ll catch you next time!

Courtesy of 0x_Vlad - trend-based trader and MentFX student

🔥 FIREDANCER TESTNET RELEASE

Firedancer is a new validator client developed by Jump Crypto, designed to make Solana faster, stronger, and more reliable. It just launched on testnet, meaning it’s being tested in a real-world environment before going live on the mainnet.

But why does this matter? Let’s break it down.

What is Firedancer?

Imagine Solana as a super-fast highway. Firedancer is like adding extra lanes, allowing more cars (transactions) to travel at once without slowing down. It doesn’t change how Solana operates but makes everything run smoother and faster.

Performance Boost: Firedancer could push Solana’s transaction speeds to new heights. We’re talking about potentially handling hundreds of thousands of transactions per second (TPS), which is huge for a blockchain that’s already known for being fast.

Reliability: Adding Firedancer means Solana has a backup engine. If one client goes down, the other can keep things running. This reduces the risk of network outages, making Solana more resilient.

Unlocking the Monolithic Design

Solana’s monolithic design means that everything—consensus, execution, and data availability—happens within a single layer. This makes the network extremely fast, but also means it needs to handle everything efficiently at scale.

Firedancer’s Role: By optimizing Solana’s performance, Firedancer helps unlock the full potential of this monolithic design. It ensures that as the network scales, it can maintain high speed and low latency, without breaking under pressure. Firedancer doesn’t just add speed—it reinforces the foundation Solana is built on.

Firedancer vs. Ethereum’s EIP-1559

While Ethereum’s EIP-1559 (London Upgrade) changed how fees work and burned a portion of ETH, Firedancer is focused on raw performance and reliability. It doesn’t alter Solana’s fee structure, but it could make the network more attractive by significantly boosting its capacity to handle large volumes of transactions.

Market Impact: Just as EIP-1559 influenced ETH’s price by introducing lower fees and deflationary pressure, Firedancer could impact SOL by increasing network adoption. As Solana becomes faster and more reliable, more projects might choose to build on it, potentially driving demand for SOL.

ETH Rallied 160% to the top after the EIP-1559 testnet release

What’s Next?

Right now, Firedancer is being tested in a controlled environment (testnet) to ensure everything works smoothly. It’s also partially integrated on the mainnet as “Frankendancer,” allowing developers to gradually introduce new features without risking network stability.

Potential Impact on SOL: If Firedancer lives up to its promises, we could see more developers and users flocking to Solana. This could boost SOL’s value as the network becomes more capable of handling high-demand applications like DeFi and NFTs.

Courtesy of Atomist - Castle Founder

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⚔️ A CALL TO ARMS

Think you have what it takes to enter the Castle and contribute to research and writing in the collective, or maybe you want to invest in and advise projects?

We are always looking for well-connected, talented, or simply hungry contributors who can get involved across a range of activities.

And that’s a wrap for this week, fam! Whether you're tracking the latest moves from the Fed, watching Firedancer rev up on the Solana testnet, or keeping an eye on market re-accumulation, it’s clear that patience and knowledge are your best allies in this space.

Remember, the crypto market is a marathon, not a sprint. Stay informed, keep refining your strategy, and don’t get caught up in the noise. The right opportunities will come to those who wait.

As always, trade responsibly, and we’ll be back next week with more insights, updates, and alpha.

Enjoy your weekend!

Tired Day Off GIF by Pudgy Penguins

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In our newsletter, we may discuss projects or tokens in which we hold positions. While we aim to provide informative content, our views are not financial advice. Please conduct your research and consult professionals before making investment decisions. Crypto markets are volatile, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Invest responsibly, and be aware of the risks. Your capital is at risk, and we do not accept liability for any losses.

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