Grayscale WINS, Su Zhu Wallets, $OLAS, $SG & More
The Castle Chronicle: Volume 32
👀 What’s to Come in Volume 32
🔑 Key News: $PEPE Team Selling, OpenSea Adding FEE, Friend Tech Adding Photos, $BASE Decentralization Plans & more from CJ
⛓ On-Chain Sleuthing: Degen Harambe Entering Remilia & Su Zhu Alledged Wallets feature from Cl
🔥 Hot Narratives: Friend Tech Drama & Grayscale vs SEC from unexployed
📈 Macro Outlook: Simplified Round-up and Implications from Hansolar
📉 HTF Price Action Scenarios from Vlad
⚔️ A Call to Arms
Think you have what it takes to enter the Castle and contribute to funding and advising projects across the space?
🔑 Key News
HashKey started crypto retail trading service in Hong Kong
Mastercard and Binance to end crypto card partnership
Shopify partners with Solana
Avraham Eisenberg caught with child pornography
OnlyFans invested company profits into $ETH
PrimeTrust multisig wallet has $40M worth of inaccessible crypto
Impact Theory, LLC was charged by SEC for an unregistered securities offering which raised $30M from NFT sale
BitBoy removes host Ben Armstrong amid meme coin controversy
DCG reached agreement with Genesis creditors to deliver recoveries of up to 90%
Exploits/Updates that Happened This Week
Hyperliquidx FRIEND-USD index changes and maintenance margin refunds for liquidations update
Magnate Finance rugged on Base
Aave paused GHO minting
Default of Tokenized Loans on Centrifuge Puts MakerDAO’s Investment at Risk
Balancer hacked for a total of $900k
Useful Weekly Defi Updates
Maple Finance launching on Solana
Stader Labs introduces rsETH
Wormhole introduces its foundation
OpenSea Pro will add a 0.5% platform fee to all OpenSea listings and offers starting August 31
Friend Tech adds photos to its platform
Coinbase outlines a decentralization plan for Base with fault proofs and OP client diversity
Governance proposal for upcoming dYdX Chain goes to Snapshot vote
Some Interesting Projects to Look Out For:
⛓ On-Chain Sleuthing
Degen Harambe Buying Remilia Assets
A new persona in our database: Degen Harambe. A fairly known CT persona with over 28k followers. He is also a well-known $PEPE whale, but has become a Remilia whale recently too.
He has been purchasing loads of Remilia NFTs and other assets.
Harambe now holds 66 Miladies, 46 Remilio Babies, and 13 Yayo’s.
Degen Harambe’s Wallet [only visible for free subs]
Potential Su Zhu Wallets
A supposed address linked to Su Zhu was trending recently on Twitter. Although there is no hard evidence that this address is linked to the infamous 3AC trader, lots of people have speculated about it, because of its connections and holdings to projects like $RLB and $0X.
Doing some digging, we have found another wallet that is linked to this address and potentially also controlled by the same person. The addresses are among the top holders of $BITCOIN, $OLAS, $HILO, and $MOG.
Both $OLAS and $HILO have been bought (and marked) at the local tops.
Combined these wallets are worth well over $8 million.
Su Zhu’s Wallet 1 and Wallet 2 [only visible for free subs]
🔥 Hot Narratives
Friend Tech vs SharesGram
Obviously, when a new toy enters CT, developers flock in to create forks and profit off the mania.
We have seen it with DEXs, Doge coins, and more recently with Telegram bots a la $UNIBOT. It was to be expected that it would happen to Friend Tech (FT) too.
At first, you would think this is not a big deal, right? All the major CT influencers are already on FT, it is backed by Paradigm, and there is a point system with an airdrop on its way.
With the wind in its sails, FT had nothing to worry about, until it fumbled by tweeting out the following:
This goes against the ethos of crypto and obviously rubbed the wrong way for a lot of people.
This kinda opened up the market for competitors and for a moment it seemed that Shares Gram was ready to step up. However, the dev of Shares Gram decided that he wanted to do some shenanigans too by swapping the ETH from taxes to USDC without communicating back to the community. This led to such a backlash that Shares Gram lost any momentum it had.
The dev ended his day like this:
Quite a rollercoaster. Let’s see what functionalities Friend Tech is able to ship to solidify its leading position and get people back on its platform again.
(p.s. do some trades with your friends, you’ll earn points that will likely translate to tokens)
Grayscale WINS vs SEC
US court has decided in favor of Grayscale in their legal battle against the SEC. The case has been ongoing for some time and had to do with the SEC denying Grayscale’s proposal. According to the SEC, the proposal did nothing to prevent fraudulent and manipulative acts and practices.
The SEC has used this reasoning for other spot ETFs, but with this court ruling, it seems that this will come to an end. Note that the court ruling does not imply that spot ETFs will be approved, but more so that the SEC needs to revise their reasoning.
What’s exciting is that six pending BTC spot ETF requests are on the agenda for September 1st.
We expect that the SEC will do their best to postpone and delay any decision on these. But sooner or later, we can expect the first BTC spot ETF approval.
Courtesy of unexployed
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💹 Macro Outlook
Please note that if certain technical jargon or concepts mentioned in this text are unclear, you can refer to investopedia.com for detailed explanations and definitions. Additionally, for a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic events, you can explore the event calendar on investing.com/economic-calendar/.
Tues: House Price Indices & JOLTS
Wed: ADP Employment, Pending Home Sales, US GDP(pre)
Thurs: Jobless Claims & PCE Report
Fri: Employment Situation Report & Global Manu. PMIs
BTC, ETH, and Macro
BTC and ETH continue to trade within a tight range with continued macro headwinds. The US saw a slightly softer PMI print and weak earnings from US retailers pointing to signs of a weakening consumer base.
Globally both Europe and China continue to see slowing growth. The latter has been lowering interest rates and reducing taxes on trading stocks to inject more liquidity into the economy. Monetary policy will usually take months to affect the economy and hence we could see more chop from China for a while.
Grayscale case verdict is anticipated every Tuesday and Friday at 1600 UTC
BIG UPDATE: Grayscale won its case versus the SEC, which led to a surge in $BTC price.
Blackrock’s ETF + 5 others approval decision on Sept 1st
12 ETH Futures ETF approval on Oct 12th
IVs have been elevated since yesterday which seem to be attracting short-term strangle/straddle sellers for the end of the week.
BTC IVs have risen to 37.26(42.4 last week) which implies the options markets expect a 1.95% daily price move.
Skews stayed positive this week meaning the markets are heavily in favor of buying puts(bearish).
ETH IVs have risen to 39.13(39.74 last week) implying the options markets expect a 2.04% daily price move. Currently, the 30d IV is slightly higher than the historical volatility of 38.2%.
ETH skews are also positive implying option market participants are buying puts (bearish).
📈 HTF Price Action Scenarios
It would seem we are back in low volatility mode. After tapping the daily demand, the price has been consolidating in a tight range. All I’m waiting for now is a push to the upside.
Lows being liquidated
Re-accumulation playing out
Looking to follow momentum to the upside
Unless bullish momentum shows up from these areas, I don’t see a reason to enter this market whatsoever.
Trade responsibly and I’ll see y’all next week!
Courtesy of Vlad - trend-based trader and MentFX student
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