👀 What’s to Come in Volume 35

🔑 Key News: Genesis Ceased Trading Services, Remilia ROBBED, Mark Cuban RUGGED, $PRISMA, $OP, $METIS & more from CJ

⛓ On-Chain Sleuthing: Sifu Shorting ETH & xCurve Dumping $UNIBOT feature along with Smart Money Moves from Cl

🔥 Hot Narratives $ICE to $WAGMI, $ARB Incentives Approved from unexployed & Otheym

📈 Macro Outlook: Simplified Round-up and Implications from Hansolar

📉 HTF Price Action Scenarios from Vlad

⚔️ A Call to Arms

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🔑 Key News

Major Headlines

• Judge approved FTX estate to start liquidating their assets

• SEC goes after Stoner Cats NFT but commissioners Perice and Uyeda disagrees

• Circle partners with GrabSG

• Genesis Has Ceased All Crypto Trading Services

• Holesky failed to launch, relaunch in a week

Exploits that Happened This Week

• CoinEx hot wallet compromised

• Dev in Remilia stole $1M

• BananaGun token had a bug, they will relaunch and update

• Good Entry Labs ETH-USDC vault error

• JPEX exchange rugged users by increasing withdrawal fees

• Mark Cuban wallet drained for $870k

• Zkasino potential vulnerability update

• Huobi wallet security breach

Project Updates

• Synapse Protocol launches Synapse Interchain Network & Synapse Chain Testnets

• MetaMask to be usable outside the EVM ecosystem with Snaps launch

• opBNB, Manta Network, Cosmos liquid staking module, Yearn’s yETH, and Enjin went live

• Astar Network to launch zkEVM Ethereum Layer 2 powered by Polygon

• PrismaFi increased their caps

• Jito announced point system

• Arbitrum incentive proposal passes, foundation to incentivize 50M ARB

• Gamma Strategies announces tokenomics and v2 staking

• Optimism to distribute unclaimed funds from first airdrop

• Metis DAO claims for Polynetwork hack live

Interesting Projects

• Friend Perp: Platform to leverage trade FriendTech keys

• Astar zkEVM: Astar’s L2 built on Polygon CDK stack

• Poolside Party: AMM for Value-Accruing Tokens

• CrocBot: Airdrop farming bot built by sybil experts

• Topic Market: Social Platform Where You Can Trade Hot Topics

• Bribe Catcher: Analytics for bribes on Ethereum

Courtesy of CJ - check out his telegram channel for daily news, projects updates and new releases

⛓ On-Chain Sleuthing

Sifu Shorting $ETH

Sifu is shorting $ETH hardcore. The notorious whale has been adding to a short on Kwenta for the past few days. The position is estimated to be around $20 million USD.

Midget Bearish on $GMX

Midget is back to bear posting $GMX. We missed this.

He has opened a short position of $144k USD on $GMX via Unidex using Kwenta pool on Optimism. The screenshot below was made Tuesday morning September 19th.

CryptK33p3r Dumped $UNIBOT Bag

K33p3r dumped his $UNIBOT bag to rotate it all into $BANANA.

xCurve Finished Selling $UNIBOT

xCurve finished selling his $UNIBOT bags in the last few days.

He was referenced and tweeted by DextMoon.

It seems that he wants to hide where the money is going. Or at least make it a little bit harder to track.

First, he dispersed it to different addresses and then sold the $UNIBOT. The ETH from selling was then sent to a contract. Follow this transaction for example.

Research and analysis by Cl

🔥 Hot Narratives

$ICE to $WAGMI Conversion

After months of anticipation, Wagmi has finally initiated its launch phase, marking the introduction of a platform that seamlessly consolidates numerous DeFi services. This integration means users can smoothly navigate through trading, liquidity provision, swapping, and strategy generation. What sets Wagmi apart is its ability to offer the ease of centralized exchanges while retaining the transparency and security inherent to decentralized systems.

Central to Wagmi's offerings is the GMI token, reminiscent of GMX’s GLP, granting users exposure to a range of yield-generating pools. GMI is a claim on 80% of the revenue on the Uniswap V3 pools owned by the protocol. These pools are strategically diversified across various fee tiers. With the aid of real-time data analytics, Wagmi consistently ensures that liquidity is placed where it's most effective, guaranteeing optimized returns while adapting to market dynamics.

To further enhance liquidity, Wagmi has introduced a bonding mechanism. Users can bond their liquidity pairs to acquire GMI tokens, and as a bonus, they're eligible to receive Wagmi tokens at a special redemption rate. The platform is also broadening its horizons with plans to roll out leveraged trading and LPing features soon.

In line with projects associated with Daniele Sesta, Wagmi emerges as a thoughtfully designed protocol. Equipped with an effective flywheel mechanism, there's a sense that Wagmi has the potential to experience significant growth.

$ARB Incentives Approved

In the introduction of last week’s Chronicle, we covered the Arbitrum proposal for an incentive program that was live at that time. We urged everyone to vote because we value the incentives for the growth of the Arbitrum ecosystem.

People were able to vote against incentives or in favor of incentives with the choices between 75 million, 50 million, or 25 million $ARB tokens.

The majority eventually voted for an incentive program of 50 million tokens. Quite substantially. This also explains the recent surge in ARB ecosystem projects’ prices.

Here is a complete timeline for the incentives:

We passed Week 4 and now the application and review period has commenced. This will be followed by a voting round and a distribution round.

Mind that there will be two distributions. Once at the beginning of October and once at the beginning of November. It might be worth keeping your eyes on any ARB projects that are small market caps but have been on the chain for long enough to be eligible for incentives.

And of course. Don’t buy tops, but keep your eyes open for dips.

This incentive program will launch in October and November. Plenty of time for the attention to fade away for a brief moment. Plenty of opportunities.

Here is a small list of potential candidates. DYOR:

$WINR $DMT $LODE $RDNT $CHOKE and of course our favorite $GMX

Courtesy of unexployed & Otheym

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💹 Macro Outlook

Please note that if certain technical jargon or concepts mentioned in this text are unclear, you can refer to investopedia.com for detailed explanations and definitions. Additionally, for a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic events, you can explore the event calendar on investing.com/economic-calendar/.

Upcoming Events

• Mon, Sept 18th : Binance and SEC hearing

• Tues, Sept 19th: Building Permits Prel.

• Thurs, Sept 21st: FOMC F 5.5% P 5.5%

• Fri, Sept 22nd: Docs in Binance v SEC case unsealed

BTC, ETH, and Macro

• We have been seeing some strong twap-like bids last Friday and Tuesday this week which begs the question, who is behind all this buy pressure? QCP thinks this could be due to rumors of the Mount Gox BTC distribution being delayed to 2024. Another theory is that it is Saylor as he previously bought up BTC in March and June. He may be trying to load up on as many bitcoins as possible by timing his bids with the US government's bitcoin sales.

Option Markets

• BTC IV and Skews: IV looks to have made a bottom in the previous week and is steadily increasing. Skews are heading lower in a neutral/bullish direction.

• ETH IV and Skews: Similar to BTC, IVs starting to increase from last week while skews are moving in a more neutral/bullish direction.

• Flow: There were two 40k ETH calls(600k and 1.2m premiums) bought up two days in a row just before the leg up this week which were incorrectly labeled as naked call buying when in fact these were short vol positions being closed. Nevertheless, still good news as it could mean some bullish momentum in the near future.

Courtesy of Hansolar - check out his telegram chat for all things options, crypto and DeFi

📈 HTF Price Action Scenarios

Gm frens!

What an uneventful market. In long corrections such as these, we want to see an intent of continuation before jumping on board. That’s why even though I’m overall bullish on this market, I am just waiting on the sidelines for money to show up on the long side.

• Daily demand tapped

• Re-accumulation playing out

• Looking to follow bullish momentum

These are perfect times to set some alerts and do something else. You outperform the market by simply staying out of it. Once the market shows you what it wants to do, you can look to get an entry.

Until then…

Trade responsibly and I’ll see y’all next week!

Courtesy of Vlad - trend-based trader and MentFX student

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Virtually yours,

The Castle

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