$ARB Incentives, FTX Selling, Friend Tech, $BANANA & More
The Castle Chronicle: Volume 34
Arbitrum incentive season might be upon us.
We wrote an extensive response on the proposal, view the Twitter thread here.
Please read it carefully and educate yourself on the intricacies of the proposal. We think the distribution of 75 million $ARB sets the network back on a path of sustainable growth and welcome it with open arms!
Go vote! Or let your delegates know to vote!
Now, let’s get into the juice!
👀 What’s to Come in Volume 34
🔑 Key News: Vitalik HACKED, Prisma Airdrop?!, Projects to Put on Your Radar & more from CJ
🔥 Hot Narratives $BANANA UP and DOWN, Friend Tech Still Hype from unexployed
📈 Macro Outlook Simplified Round-up and Implications from Hansolar
📉 HTF Price Action Scenarios from Vlad
⚔️ A Call to Arms
Think you have what it takes to enter the Castle and contribute to funding and advising projects across the space?
🔑 Key News
ZachXBT exposes TraderNJ1 and PetaByteCapital for dumping tokens
Potential FTX digital assets sell-off
FTX Ryan Salama pleads guilty
CTFC Commissioner Caroline Pham proposes pilot program to regulate crypto
⛓ On-Chain Sleuthing
An unidentified whale has been buying Blueberry Club NFTs via leverage using platform DeFrag.
Interesting use of Defrag. However, we wonder why someone would acquire 1% of a low liquidity NFT collection with leverage… Is this bullish or bearish?
Karbon Davis Dumping His $UNIBOT
Last Tuesday, Karbon Davis or based karbon, dumped his $UNIBOT bag.
He was put on blast by CT, because a few hours earlier he was tweeting about the project. Caught in the action of dumping on followers….
Another influenza makes bullish tweets about project just hours before jeeting entire bag @basedkarbon
None of these people are your friends, you must dyor on anything you invest in.
— tree of dopamine (@infinitybanyan)
Sep 12, 2023
A sad sight to behold.
Based Karbon’s DeBank Page [only visible for free subs]
🔥 Hot Narratives
$BANANA Volatile Launch
This week’s hottest thing will probably be next week's hottest thing too.
$BANANA started off as an extremely successful launch, but ended the day by becoming one of the most horrible launches in recent months.
The team tricked snipers with a fake token and launched the real token soon after. The price rallied from $0.60 to $8 within the first 10 minutes of the launch. Here are some details about the tokenomics:
As you can see, the team remains in control over the majority of the token supply, but this didn’t change the degens mind.
What did change their mind was the fact that the tax on sales did not work properly. A major mistake that slipped through the audits. Instead of 4% of each sale going to the platform, it remained in the users’ wallets.
This led to a spiral down and eventually the team came out with a statement regarding the bug. In a later tweet explained their next steps:
Shitty situation, but we're going to do everything to make it right. Happy to share an action plan though.
1. We are having our new contract audited, but won't launch until we are sure everything is in order.
2. We are going to take care of our investors.
Let us go… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— Banana Gun 🍌🔫 (@BananaGunBot)
Sep 11, 2023
Yesterday was a huge dent to the image of $BANANA and a lot of people lost trust in the team. This will increase the selling pressure significantly on the relaunch.
A potential playable relauch-scenario: Pump, sell-off by presalers and reimbursed users, accumulation/sideways, pump? Who knows.
The team took the right approach to reimburse any affected traders and for that we applaud them. We wish them all the best for the relaunch.
Friend Tech Still Trending Up
Friend Tech remains the flavor of the month. Top keys have been trending upwards and a lot of metrics continue their bullish trajection as shown by this Dune dashboard:
Total fees to the protocol are nearing $7 million. Extremely impressive for such a short time frame.
People are collecting tokens through holding and trading keys, and talking with others. A very thriving community is arising on FT and you don’t even need huge capital to participate.
That being said, plenty of MEV searchers are on the sprawl for high-profile Twitter users signing up to FT. I wrote an in-depth thread about it here.
Basically, snipers are able to buy in at the same block a big Twitter account registers their FT profile and in the process pump the price significantly (sometimes over 0.3e).
If you are using Friend Tech bots of any sort, then it is wise to wait till those bots are out of shares and buy shares if you are bullish on the profile.
These bots do NOT use Friend Tech with an account meaning their buys and sells do not show up in the UI of FT. It is recommended to open the address of the Friend Tech account and monitor the internal transactions for any buys and sells.
Some codes to create an account if you don’t have one yet.
Courtesy of unexployed
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💹 Macro Outlook
Please note that if certain technical jargon or concepts mentioned in this text are unclear, you can refer to investopedia.com for detailed explanations and definitions. Additionally, for a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic events, you can explore the event calendar on investing.com/economic-calendar/.
Wed, Sept 13th : CPI, FTX assets
Thur, Sept 14th : PPI, Retail Sales
Next Tues, Sept 19th : Building Permits Prel.
Next Thurs, Sept 21th : FOMC
BTC, ETH, and Macro
Markets continued its bearish bleeding price action as it briefly lost support at 25k, trapped shorts and squeezed back towards 26k. With the BTC ETF approvals still more than a month away, markets are expected to carry on trading in large swings with low volatility in between; i.e. bart season.
The FTX estate assets were updated and the amount of SOL almost doubled relative to the previous data. Not a good place to be for alts atm.
SOL $685m → $1.16b
BTC $529m → $560m
ETH $268m → $192m
APT $90m → $137m
Both BTC and ETH IVs jumped to 45$(+10$) on the price drop to below 25k and have slowly crept back down on the recovery. It indeed looks like the IV bottom is being made more concrete.
🔮 It looks like the previous week’s aggressive skew increase was a great indicator to follow! We covered how sudden moves in skew can indicate a market participant in the know or trading with high conviction. The markets indeed corrected lower during the week and their puts should be in good profits. We also briefly touched the 25k negative gamma region in the Gex shared last week. Double whammy.
This week, skews are both highly positive for BTC and ETH once again indicating bearishness in the near term. OTM put buying could be a way to protect the downside in the scenario where we lose 25k support. As a high-timeframe support level, losing this could mean a large correction.
BTC IV and Skews:
ETH IV and Skews:
Flow: Some heavy call buying(+1k contracts) for 29k and 30k strikes targeting the end of the month in the past 24 hours. Think this may be an ETF bet. Feels a bit early, but swinging pretty hard…
📈 HTF Price Action Scenarios
Looks like we’re in for another dip into the demand zone. This is still all happening within the expectations of re-accumulation. I am looking for bullish setups here, so if none show up, there is no trade to be taken.
Daily demand tapped
Re-accumulation playing out
Looking to follow bullish momentum
For now orderflow is clearly to the downside, so I’m looking for that to clearly change before looking for any long setups. Once again, this is a great time to stay out.
Trade responsibly and I’ll see y’all next week!
Courtesy of Vlad - trend-based trader and MentFX student
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